Did I Beat The NFL? | The Shadow GM - An NFL Draft Project (2019-present)

The Shadow GM | An NFL Draft Project (2019-present)
Vision: To Out-Draft all 32 NFL Teams | Draft 1+ PB/AP Player at each Position Group
Rank: 3rd of 32 NFL Teams (Draft data on all NFL Teams below)

Quick Backstory:

Decades ago, I was sitting on the sofa and my father was in his chair and we were watching the first round of the NFL Draft. A player was being selected, and the panel was raving about the player. My father was in his pajamas. He had never seen the player play before. I could see him shaking his head from the corner of my eye and I asked him “What?” He said “No. Not him. Not in this league.” I said “What do you mean? Did you hear what they said about him?” The player’s highlights were running and the panel was raving, but my father said to me “Look at him, son. Look at his footwork. How the hell are you going to play football in the NFL with footwork like that?” I shrugged because I couldn’t see what my father saw at that moment. He was brilliant like that. But I made a point of it to watch that player’s career, and to really think about all the scouts and media people and what they saw in him. And to have the patience to let it be a long moment, to see who was right. Years later, that player was out of the league, having never earned PRO BOWL or ALL PRO honors. He was, like most players in the game, just another guy. But still, he was the game. In the end, my father, the guy sitting in his pajamas, was right. And all the scouts, all the media people, and the team that picked him, they were wrong.

The Shadow GM | An NFL Draft Project

In the decades that followed, I fell in love with football all over again. I dove headfirst into a talent I wasn’t sure I had. I began evaluating players. The difficult part, I think, of being a talent evaluator in this way, is knowing that you cannot know if you’re right until the players’ careers play out. You have no choice but patience. It took many years to discover how average I was. So many of the players I liked weren’t very good, while some of the players I didn’t believe in were studs. It’s an awful moment when you realize just how wrong you are, when the whole time you thought you were right.

In 2010, I decided that what I needed to do was reinvent myself. I wanted to find a new way to evaluate players that was more consistent with who I am, and my natural way of thinking and problem solving. It took me 4 years to find it. When I did, I knew I had found the accuracy I was looking for.

Somewhere along the way, I came across an interview with the late writer Charles Bukowski, who was a drunk, miserable s.o.b near the end. A journalist came to his house for a story. He asked Bukowski “Why did you start writing?”. And Bukowski told him that he loved to read, and that he was reading all the books that he was told were written by the best writers of his time. And he thought to himself, so much of it really wasn’t very good. He thought he could do better if he decided to write. So he did, and he became a celebrated writer. The wisdom I took away from that interview was to look at the room that exists, even among the experts. There is a lot of room for improvement, no matter the industry or business. NFL fans can see this easily each year. All you have to do is look at how poor some of the rosters are. I think what Bukowski was saying, or what I took away, was that you don’t have to wait for an invitation. No one is going to invite you. If you think you can do it better, you just have to decide to participate.

In 2019, I decided I was going to put my talent to the test. I wanted to participate. I dreamed up a project, a challenge, to draft a roster with the intent to out-draft all 32 NFL Teams. I decided on a simple way to measure each team’s success, including my own. That success would be determined by who can draft the most PRO BOWL and/or ALL PRO players. I thought that it was the most simple and fair way to grade each team, and that it was an easy metric for anyone to understand. If the challenge is to draft a roster and out-draft the NFL, then it made sense to me to do it like the NFL does, with one pick in each round, just like every NFL team. NFL Teams get compensatory picks though, so each team averages about 8 total draft picks per year. For my team though, I thought it would be a great challenge to see if I can win with 7. In the end, I chose to build my roster by selecting a player with the 16th pick in each round of the NFL Draft. Of all the ways I could have structured things, that felt the most fair and presented the greatest challenge.

The Shadow GM project is now in year 8, and the draft results rank 3rd among all 32 NFL Teams. I learned a long time ago that if you ain't first, you're last. And so, I didn't beat the NFL. Not yet. I'm only getting started though, and I couldn't stop even if I tried. One day, I'm going to build a real NFL Roster. It's going to be the best roster in football.

I lost my father two years ago. I miss the hell out of him. I wish I could have given him the gift that I dream so hard about now, for us to watch a real NFL Team that I put together, in the game he used to play and love. If I ever get to do that, I hope he gets to sit up there, in his chair and in his pajamas, and watch. I hope that he loves it. That would be the greatest win I could ever hope for.

-Shadow GM

THE DEFENSE

S: Xavier McKinney (Pick 1.16 - 2020) *ALL PRO - PRO BOWL*

McKinney was the only option for me at pick #16 in the 2020 NFL Draft. He was far and away my favorite defensive player and I was thrilled when I drafted him. McKinney has gone on to earn PRO BOWL and ALL PRO honors in his awesome career. He is a do-everything safety. He can cover. He can tackle. You can blitz him. He creates turnovers. Stud of a player, and one half of an awesome duo on the Shadow GM roster.

S: Talanoa Hufanga (Pick 5.16 - 2021) *ALL PRO - PRO BOWL*

Hufanga is the only other safety I’ve drafted in these 8 years. I love the idea of pairing him with McKinney. While watching Talanoa Hufanga at USC, I was forever left with the impression that this guy does things on the field that other players simply cannot do. He is an impact player in every sense of the word, which is why he earned PRO BOWL and ALL PRO honors in just his 2nd season. Hufanga is a stud. I love the way he plays the game. It is such a joy to put on film of Hufanga and just watch. I cannot believe a player of his caliber was available in round 5, and all the simulations that said so were right. He plays with an energy that is so damn fun. Hufanga is one of my favorite draft picks of the entire project.

DB: Julian Love (Pick 3.16 - 2019) *PRO BOWL*

There are two players that I have evaluated since 2019 that among everyone, I would consider the best two pure football players. Julian Love is one of those players. He is one of my all time favorites, and I cannot stress enough just how much I think of Julian Love. If a coach were to come to me and say that he’s got a youth camp and he wants to bring a player to run through DB drills to show the youth what it's supposed to look like, I would tell him to bring Julian Love. He is, in my opinion, a fundamental master of all of the DB positions. I drafted him to play corner, but early in his career with the Giants, he earned the nickname duct tape because he can fix any hole in the secondary. Those holes were at safety, and he’s stuck there ever since. As good as Julian Love is at playing safety, I think he’s an even better corner. One of my all time favorites and a jewel among the Shadow GM project.

CB: Byron Murphy Jr (Pick 1.16 - 2019) *PRO BOWL*

The inaugural pick came down to two players. The other player I was considering was DT Jeffery Simmons. In the weeks leading up to the draft, I found a video of an incident involving Simmons and it was ugly. This isn’t hidden knowledge so I think it’s okay to mention it. In the end, I couldn’t make him the first selection of my project after seeing what he’d participated in. And so I was thrilled to select Byron Murphy Jr with the first ever pick in my Shadow GM NFL Draft project. I do believe the word redemption exists because it’s real, and it looks like Jeffery has dedicated himself to that. For that I commend him. In the end, my first ever selection made a PRO BOWL in his sixth NFL season, and I love that it all started with Byron Murphy Jr. He is a terrific cover corner who collected 6 interceptions in 2024, two behind his ALL PRO “teammate” Xavier McKinney. If this roster were real, the combination of Murphy Jr with Love at corner, and Hufanga and McKinney at safety makes for one hell of a secondary. I love this defense.

LB: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Pick 1.16 - 2021) *PRO BOWL*

I am sick that NFL Fans will likely never get to see JOK ever again. I think, had he not suffered a career ending injury, he might be the best of this entire group. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was a superstar. One of the best players I’ve ever evaluated and had the pleasure of drafting. In 2023 he earned PRO BOWL honors, racking up 20 tackles for loss. JOK was a stud among studs. I sorely miss him. He was a one man wrecking crew and his arrow was pointing straight up. When I evaluated him prior to the 2021 NFL Draft, I knew within the first minute of film that this was the guy I was drafting. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was truly a special player.

LB: TJ Edwards (Pick 5.16 - 2019)

This is another guy who is one of my all time favorite players. TJ Edwards does everything well. If I were building a roster, I would want this guy on my team 10 out of 10 times. I absolutely love his game. He came into the league as an undrafted linebacker out of Wisconsin, and in year one he earned the starting job in Philadelphia. Now with Chicago, he’s a tackling machine and as rock steady a player as you can ask for. TJ was one of my favorite players in the 2019 NFL Draft. He is still one of my favorite players today.

LB: Payton Wilson (Pick 2.16 - 2024)

When I evaluate players, I’m doing so with the intention of finding the best. It’s also accurate to say that I’m looking for my favorite players, and Payton Wilson checks both boxes. This dude can flat out play the game, and he is so fun to watch. If you want to see what natural desire looks like, go back and watch highlights of Pittsburgh vs Baltimore, week 16 of 2024. Late in the game, Lamar hits Zay Flowers on a deep ball and he fights his way to maximize the play. Payton Wilson takes off from Baltimore’s 9 yard line and sprints 53 yards to help finish the play. You don’t have to ever tell this guy to play with effort. He was already built that way. And it is the icing on the cake to the awesome football player that he already is.

EDGE: Nick Herbig (Pick 4.16 - 2023)

Nick Herbig was hands down my favorite defensive player of the 2023 NFL Draft. I was terrified that he’d be drafted before the simulations said he would. In the end, I chose him with the 16th pick in the 4th round, and my joy skyrocketed. Pittsburgh just paid him big time money, and that likely means much more opportunity. Of all the young edge players in the game, I don’t think anyone is as good as Nick Herbig. He wins over and over and over again. I will not be surprised if Herbig leads the NFL in sacks at some point in his NFL career. You cannot block this man. He is far too good. In my opinion, Nick is already one of the best players in the game. I cannot wait to watch him play out his career.

EDGE: George Karlaftis (Pick 1.16 - 2022)

Karlaftis never quits. He's got a motor that doesn't have an off switch. They don't call him the Greek Freak for nothing. So far, George has earned one double digit sack season and one double digit tfl season. I think he has much more in him. I believe he still has the most career postseason sacks among all active players, unless I missed who took it from him. I think Goerge is a terrific player. With Herbig on one side and Karlaftis on the other, QBs would be running for their lives.

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THE OFFENSE

QB: Jaxson Dart (Pick 1.16 - 2025)

In 2025, Jaxson Dart was my only target at pick #16. Of course I had a plan had he been selected earlier, but I thank the league for being asleep on this one. When I put on the film of Jaxson Dart, I was absolutely blown away. I saw a guy who can literally do everything. He can stand in the pocket and deliver the football. He can take off and beat you with his legs. He’s creative. He’s on schedule. In my opinion, Jaxson Dart is the best QB prospect I have evaluated since this project began in 2019. He is easily my favorite player at the position in these last 8 years, and my genuine belief is that he will be among the best at his position during his career. There is one caveat to this, and that is his unwillingness to protect himself. It is his achilles heel, and I hope he learns this very soon. Jaxson, in my opinion, also has a Super Power. As good as he is with his legs and all that comes with his toughness, his true Super Power is his accuracy. Jaxson throws strikes. I don’t hear this talked about when I listen to commentary on Jaxson Dart, but in my opinion that is his greatest Super Power. Dude throws strikes over and over again. And with guys like Nabors and his ability to run after the catch, defenses better watch out.

RB: Tyler Allgeier (Pick 3.16 - 2022)

This man is one of two of my favorite football players since 2019. Not athletes. Not running backs. Football Players. In 2022, Tyler Allgeier was hands down my favorite RB in the draft. It wasn’t even close. I targeted him in most of my draft simulations, and those simulations led me to believe that Allgeier would likely be a 4th round pick. So I chose him in the 3rd. I cannot tell you how much I love Tyler Allgeier. He is a phenomenal football player, and one of my favorite picks of this project. I feel awful for him that he may not ever get the workload that I think he deserves. I will still be watching with reverence for one of my all time favorites. In 2021 against Arizona State, Allgeier made one of the best plays I’ve ever seen. I won’t spoil it for you. What a stud.

RB: Jadarian Price (Pick 1.16 - 2026)

Jadarian Price was my favorite running back in the 2026 NFL Draft. Here is why. First, there is nothing this guy can’t do at the position. He has great quickness, agility, acceleration, speed, vision, he runs hard, he runs to daylight, he splits defenders. Jadarian Price is a natural NFL Running Back and he is a problem. If all of that weren’t enough, he has something that I don’t see in many other players. If you’ve ever been coached on how to run, many coaches teach forefoot running. Many players in the NFL are forefoot runners. There is nothing good or bad about it, it is just who they are. Jadarian is a heel strike runner. His heel strikes first, and then his stride takes the entire length of his foot into contact with the turf. What does this mean? Here is what I think it means - traction. So many guys, when I watch their film, I see a slight loss of traction here or there and it completely ruins the possibility of a larger play. When I watch Jadarian Price, I see a guy who has traction at all the right moments. When you add this to his natural balance and footwork, traction becomes a multiplier to the rest of his game. If he gets the workload in Seattle, I think Jadarian Price is going to eat the entire buffet.

RB/KR: Ray Davis (Pick 4.16 - 2024) *ALL PRO*

What can I say about Ray Davis. This dude is a stud. Period. In my opinion, Ray Davis is a top 10 running back in the NFL in his sleep. I think he is that good. He earned ALL PRO honors in 2025 as a kick returner, and he’s an even better running back. Ray Davis can run inside. He can run outside. He can get the tough yards. He can rip off the big plays. He catches the ball out of the backfield and torches you. He’s excellent in pass protection. What is not to love about this guy? All things considered, with all the love I have for the other running backs on this roster, I think Ray Davis might be the best.

WR: Zay Flowers (Pick 1.16 - 2023) *PRO BOWL*

Zay Flowers was my favorite WR in the 2023 NFL Draft. He is a separation monster, does damage after the catch, and plays the game with all the desire you could ever ask for. In my mind, Zay Flowers is the kind of player you can only hope to contain. He is going to get open. Good luck stopping that from happening. What you can’t let happen is for him to torch you after the catch. Good luck with that, too.

WR: Ladd McConkey (Pick 1.16 - 2024)

Can you tell I love great route runners? When I put the film on in early 2024, Ladd McConkey instantly stood out. Great balance, great footwork, damage after the catch, heady player. Watching his rookie season was a joy. He made play after play, including a sensational playoff performance in a lopsided loss to Houston. McConkey proved that he’s a damn good football player. I believe he can handle many more targets, and produce heavily with them. We’ll see if he gets that opportunity moving forward. I absolutely love Ladd McConkey.

WR: Jack Bech (Pick 2.16 - 2025)

I really hope the Raiders figure this one out soon. In my opinion, Jack Bech is far and away the best WR in Las Vegas. Brock Bowers at TE will be a monster again, but the rest of the WR room looks average. When I watch film on Jack Bech, I think about him as if Drake London and Ladd McConkey had a baby. He’s got great footwork, even if it’s duck footed. He finds terrific separation at the top of his routes. And after the catch, Jack is strong. He loves to keep it going and be physical in his work after the catch. Jack Bech was one of my favorite players in the entire 2025 NFL Draft, and damn I hope we get to see a lot of him. I would draft this guy 10 out of 10 times, and then 10 more. Jack Bech is that dude.

TE: Greg Dulcich (Pick 2.16 - 2023)

Dulcich reminds me a lot of LB Zack Baun. Hear me out on this. The New Orleans Saints drafted Zack Baun in the 3rd round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He played as a backup linebacker and special teams player under his rookie deal for 4 years, and in year 5 of his career, he signs with the Philadelphia Eagles on a one year deal. The Eagles decide to start him, and in his first year as a starter, Zack Baun is named ALL PRO. Now I think it begs the question, did Zack Baun all the sudden figure out how to play linebacker really well in year 5 of his career, or did New Orleans have no clue what they had in Zack Baun? If the Miami Dolphins decide to start Dulcich, he’s going to produce and he’s going to play really damn well. Greg Dulcich is a damn good player, and finally he may get a chance to prove it. In the 2026 NFL Draft, I selected three tight ends with three consecutive picks. Those players are Max Klare, Michael Trigg and Josh Cuevas. With these four tight ends, I think you can accomplish whatever you want to accomplish at the TE position. I absolutely love this group. I hope each of them gets to play and show everyone just how good they are.

OL: Aaron Banks (Pick 2.16 - 2021)

Aaron is the sole starting offensive lineman of the 5 lineman I have drafted in this project. He is a solid starting guard in the NFL but likely will not earn honors. Offensive line and tight end are the two position groups that I think are lacking on this roster, but I do not think they are my weakest positions to evaluate. Some of my favorite players at both positions have gone on to earn PRO BOWL honors, so I am confident in my ability to evaluate the positions. The players that represent them on my roster, however, might leave a different impression.

NFL Draft Strength Leaderboard (2019-2025)

Rank Franchise / Front Office Total Picks Pro Bowlers / All-Pros Hit Rate %
1 Detroit Lions 54 11 20.40%
2 Dallas Cowboys 60 10 16.70%
3 Shadow GM 49 7 14.30%
4 Houston Texans 53 7 13.20%
5 Philadelphia Eagles 55 7 12.70%
6 Baltimore Ravens 63 7 11.10%
7 Denver Broncos 54 5 9.30%
8 Jacksonville Jaguars 66 6 9.10%
9 Miami Dolphins 47 4 8.50%
10 Seattle Seahawks 60 5 8.30%
T11 Kansas City Chiefs 49 4 8.20%
T11 Atlanta Falcons 49 4 8.20%
13 Los Angeles Rams 64 5 7.80%
14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 4 7.80%
15 Los Angeles Chargers 55 4 7.30%
16 New England Patriots 69 5 7.20%
17 Buffalo Bills 56 4 7.10%
T18 Washington Commanders 57 4 7.00%
T18 New York Giants 57 4 7.00%
T18 Las Vegas Raiders 57 4 7.00%
21 San Francisco 49ers 58 4 6.90%
22 Arizona Cardinals 60 4 6.70%
T23 Carolina Panthers 51 3 5.90%
T23 Tennessee Titans 51 3 5.90%
25 Pittsburgh Steelers 52 3 5.80%
26 New York Jets 53 3 5.70%
27 Cincinnati Bengals 57 3 5.30%
28 New Orleans Saints 43 2 4.70%
29 Cleveland Browns 51 2 3.90%
30 Indianapolis Colts 63 2 3.20%
31 Minnesota Vikings 66 2 3.00%
32 Green Bay Packers 69 2 2.90%
33 Chicago Bears 53 1 1.90%

The Shadow GM Roster (by position in order of player strength)
*Pro Bowl/All Pro

QB: Jaxson Dart | Jarrett Stidham | Sam Ehlinger | Skylar Thompson

RB: *Ray Davis (AP/KR), Tyler Allgeier, Jadarian Price, Sean Tucker, Chris Brooks, Audric Estime, Jam Miller, Zonovan Knight

WR: *Zay Flowers (PB), Ladd McConkey, Jack Bech, Preston Williams, Denzel Mims, Anthony Johnson, Zakhari Franklin, Dontario Drummond, Chase Roberts, Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Luke Grimm, Britain Covey (PR)

TE: Greg Dulcich, Max Klare, Michael Trigg, Josh Cuevas, Cheyenne O’grady, CJ Dippre

OL: Aaron Banks, Wanya Morris, Jake Hanson, Shane Lemieux, Adrian Ealy

DL: Nick Herbig, George Karlaftis, Ty Robinson, Joe Gaziano, Antwaun Powell-Ryland, Jaylon Ferguson, Mohamed Kamara, James Lynch, Nadame Tucker, Daviyon Nixon

LB: *Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (PB), TJ Edwards, Payton Wilson, Shaun Dolac

CB: *Julian Love (PB), *Byron Murphy Jr (PB), Elijah Molden, Kalen King, Kyu Blu Kelly

S: *Xavier McKinney (AP), *Talanoa Hufanga (AP)

The Shadow GM Drafts (2019-2026)
*Pro Bowl/All Pro Players

2019: (16)*Byron Murphy Jr CB Washington
(48)Jaylon Ferguson DE Louisiana Tech
(80)*Julian Love CB Notre Dame
(118)Jarrett Stidham QB Auburn
(154)TJ Edwards LB Wisconsin
(189)Preston Williams WR Colorado State
(230)Anthony Johnson WR Buffalo

2020: (16)*Xavier McKinney S Alabama
(48)Denzel Mims WR Baylor
(80)James Lynch DE Baylor
(122)Shane Lemieux G Oregon
(161)Jake Hanson C Oregon
(195)CJ Ogrady TE Arkansas
(230)Joe Gaziano DE Northwestern

2021: (16)*Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah LB Notre Dame
(48)Aaron Banks G Notre Dame
(79)Elijah Molden CB Washington
(121)Daviyon Nixon DT Iowa
(160)*Talanoa Hufanga S USC
(200)Sam Ehlinger QB Texas
(243)Adrian Ealy OT Oaklahoma

2022:(16)George Karlaftis DE Purdue
(48)Greg Dulcich TE UCLA
(80)Tyler Allgeier RB BYU
(121)Britain Covey WR Utah
(159)Dontario Drummond WR Ole Miss
(195)Zonovan Knight RB NC State
(237)Skylar Thompson QB Kansas State

2023:(16)*Zay Flowers WR Boston College
(48)Wanya Morris OT Oklahoma
(79)Sean Tucker RB Syracuse
(118)Nick Herbig Edge Wisconsin
(151)Kyu Blu Kelly CB Stanford
(193)Jalen Moreno Cropper WR Fresno State
(233)Chris Brooks RB BYU

2024:(16)Ladd McConkey WR Georgia
(48)Payton Wilson LB NC State
(80)Audric Estime RB Notre Dame
(116)*Ray Davis RB Kentucky
(151)Mohamed Kamara Edge Colorado State
(192)Kalen King CB Penn State
(236)Zakhari Franklin WR UTSA (*undrafted and returned to college football)

2025:(16)Jaxson Dart QB Ole Miss
(48)Jack Bech WR TCU
(80)Ty Robinson DT Nebraska
(118)Antwaun Powell-Ryland Edge Virginia Tech
(154)Shaun Dolac LB Buffalo
(192)Luke Grimm WR Kansas
(232)CJ Dippre TE Alabama

2026:(16)Jadarian Price RB Notre Dame
(48)Max Klare TE Ohio State
(80)Michael Trigg TE Baylor
(116)Josh Cuevas TE Alabama
(156)Chase Roberts WR BYU
(197)Jam Miller RB Alabama
(232)Nadame Tucker Edge Western Michigan

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